Well Decline Rates Define Shale Geography

Edward Camp, II

ShaleNavigator Team Lead at Geospatial Corporation

Well Decline Rate Analysis Pinpoints Drilling Efforts

Understanding Marcellus Shale well decline rates can help explain geologic differences within the vast geography of the shale formation. Well decline rate analysis is key for drilling companies to know and pinpoint their leasing and drilling efforts. For landowners, the same information can also help predict royalty income into the future years of well production. This metric can be a foundation for their wealth management strategies and mineral estate valuation.

As more and more well production data becomes available, geologists now have over five years of data in Pennsylvania to assemble decline rate curve models. What is being revealed is great variation within Pennsylvania counties. Variability within a given county is also coming into sharper view.

Analyzing Decline Rates County-by-County

A section of the Marcellus and Utica Databook written by James Ladlee, Associate Director, Penn State Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research and Steven M. Karabin, Founder/CEO, The Rhino Group, analyzed decline rates on a county-by-county basis and found differences in production in the same county, same township, and even on the same well pad. They noted that there are a variety of potential influences including length of horizontal laterals, number of frac stages completed, location of natural fractures, and differences in completion techniques.

Technological Advances Increase Well Production

Drilling technological advances are affecting well production, and have demonstrated “extending the life” of wells beyond decline rates established as recently as just a few years ago. A recent article in Marcellus Drilling News, entitled ‘Range Resource’s Secret to Drilling More Productive Wells for Less’ , explained that Range Resources returned to a well pad they previously drilled using a different technique of targeting and drilling within the shale layer. The two new wells produced 53% more natural gas (per well) than the old wells did, and each operation cost $850,000 less.

With these fast-moving technological advances, we are seeing increasing well production and longer decline rates happening right before our eyes. Add in driller’s decreasing costs, and it’s no wonder predictions point to U.S. energy independence lead by the shale energy revolution.

You can use ShaleNavigator to see the action of recent well permits and view existing well production.